37 replies to this topic

[Shylark57]

Simple answer...

Remove Deflects ability to function on the bounty board.

 

This way it doesn't make bounties long and boring with a ton of deflects.

 

AND

 

It doesn't nerf the Deflect buff for those that wish to use it for PvE or PvP ladder, wars etc.

Hmmm.. Sorry but Deflect has 0 to do with PvE it is PvP only if the Skills Guide in the game is Correct...

 Deflect +0.25% chance per point that a player attacking you will automatically fail before combat starts .

[Shadow19231]

Hmmm.. Sorry but Deflect has 0 to do with PvE it is PvP only if the Skills Guide in the game is Correct...

 Deflect +0.25% chance per point that a player attacking you will automatically fail before combat starts .

You're taking what he said too literal. He means that when you're hunting, use it to protect yourself. When you're doing PvP, use it to stop others from gaining points.. He is directly saying do not allow people on the bounty board to be able to use deflect. Or rather make deflect useless if you were on the bounty board. Now, i do not agree with them , but the clarification needs to be said

[sweetlou]

I see no reason to change game mechanics now after how many years of EVERYBODY dealing with deflect for so long...

Sorry that's a load of ____ when you say that everyone has had to deal with it therefore it shouldn't be changed. While I don't think deflect needs to be omitted from the game, there are far too many people who think there is a problem. As you said, when someone gets 13 deflects on a bounty, whether or not Anti-D is running or not, there's something wrong with that, unquestionably. Either it's wrong that Anti-D isn't working on the BB or that Deflect is working overtime, at least not at the described activation rate. Either way, I haven't really seen much to complain about deflect working OFF the BB.

[Kildek]

<snip>
I'll believe the efficacy of the RNG used by HCS when they post the results for their RNG using the dieharder test suites, not the results of 30 GVG hits. Better yet post in real time the distribution of combats and deflects as they occur across the game, short of that, the anecdotal evidence suggests otherwise.

The Mythbuster RJEM did was basted on 333 GvG attacks and 97 BB attacks.
430 attacks in total, not 30.
 

In the post by Hoof, all he said was the code is OK, no evidence or explanation of any form was offered.
 
"Personally i think while the overall distribution of "randomness" matches what is expected" - What is the expectation and how are you verifying it is matched?

The overall chance of deflect kicking in = 43.75% with 175 points.

 

In my original post, I'm not necessarily questioning the math, I conceded that the overall distribution may be to HCS's expectations, what I asked is:
1 - Could they please provide an official clarification on the calculations?
2 - Could they cap deflect activations on a given bounty by a given bounty hunter to the probabilistic limit as a complete set in and off itself?
 
The second would address the 'streakiness' hypothesis which most anecdotal evidence matches and make the game a little fairer for bounty hunters who bear the brunt of this without in anyway changing the probability of deflect activating so not reducing its defensive value in any way.

Putting a cap on deflect in BB clearing would not really fix the problem of streaks. those streaks affect every aspect of the game where a random number generator is used, not just Deflect on BB.

For the Mythbuster RJEM cleared 3 random bounties.
In those he had 2 streaks of deflect kicking in 7 times in a row.
The chance of that happening just once is (0,4375^7)*100 = 0.3% or 1 in 325, and that happened twice.
While more tests would be required. I see it (in addition to own experience) as an indication that something is wrong with the random number generator and the streaks it produces.

[Shylark57]

You're taking what he said too literal. He means that when you're hunting, use it to protect yourself. When you're doing PvP, use it to stop others from gaining points.. He is directly saying do not allow people on the bounty board to be able to use deflect. Or rather make deflect useless if you were on the bounty board. Now, i do not agree with them , but the clarification needs to be said

Any attack while some one is Hunting is PvP not PvE.. Now that makes it Clear.. I know the difference here.. Not trying to bust any Chops.. Just stating really the fact of the matter.. And even though I got deflected 14 times I don't think it needs to be changed or done away with.. I hate it but I don't see any reason to Change I just Should have gotten a Breaker potion to keep in my BP before hand as they are not always in the Bazaar.. I now have 2 In my BP... 

[bleacher12]

@ bleacher12... Only 8 times???? Try I had one activated 14 times... And I had anti deflect on for 6 of those 14 times.. The way I have heard deflect has always been about the same do your self a favor get some Breaker Pot off the Potion Bazaar.. Had a guy with deflect on 3rd hit I stripped his Deflect and I went on withe the bounty... They don't cost a lot and I have had them work.. This was the 4th time I had used them 3rd time had it kick in and get rid of the Deflect.. Now I maybe lucky but I am happy.. 

Good Luck.. 

 

That's a very small sample size and reflective of the streakiness referred to by others, talk to me after a few dozen bounties. I always use Spell Breaker 175 when I see deflect, rarely do I see it being removed, I've even been lucky with sealing it on occasion, mitigation isn't the point here, try to address the source of the issue, the underlying RNG. Understanding that addressing that as a whole may be non-trivial, a suggestion to resolve the most immediate issue without requiring any adjustment to the way the buffs work is to put in a simple cap.

If HCS wants to review the underlying problem of RNG streakiness that affects all aspects of the game, more power to them! I'm suggesting a small incremental change that makes a huge immediate impact that should be fairly easy to implement.

[Shylark57]

Well thing is I have talked to many people and they all tell me.. That deflect has been like this since they put the buff in the game.. And most of them have been playing 5-6 years.. So I don't know but I think it won't get changed... Nor does it need to..I feel if people with deflect sit on the board longer they have  more of a chance for more XP loss.. This is just from my observation of the Board..

[RJEM]

Bear in mind that streaks occur both ways - and check your logs for a streak of 8 kills in a row which is also quite unlikely.

 

HCS uses an imperfect PRNG - but it is not biased for or against the player. All my tests across all the aspects of the game that rely on it suggests the macroscopic values (hit %, variance etc.) are reproduced well, just with some  additional streakiness that is not necessarily true. Over many bounties your ratio will be 43.75% Deflect activation as it should be. Some bounties may be tougher (i.e. unluckier) than others and I understand the frustration.

 

Honestly - I ask you to look at your logs over an extended period (say 100 or 200 attacks) and post up your log if you actually get deflected more than 30% of the time when using anti-deflect. I've asked this before when people question my investigation and noone has yet posted any evidence outside of the odd single bounty which went badly.

 

Anecdotes like this (and by the way, 8 in a row is not bad luck for the BB) do not show anything is amiss.

[rowbeth]

Thanks Chazz, the math part is fairly straightforward, I get that, I think the issue is with implementation, to illustrate:

• on 3 consecutive bounties yesterday I saw 8, 5 and 8 deflects (all level 175) in each of those bounties
• I had Anti-Deflect activate 2 times (again level 175), so that means Deflect actually activated 10, 7 and 10 times on those bounties.

Does it not seem excessive that on 3 bounties requiring a total of 30 hits to clear, Deflect activated 27 times?

 

These deflect odds seem about right.

 

If you are completing a bounty, then you need 10 successful hits. If 43.75% of hits get deflected, then you will need to attempt 10*(1/(1-0.4375))=17.8 attacks in order to get 10 that aren't deflected. So 8 deflects is spot on expectation. I see you are actually saying 7 & 10; I don't have the data on the variance for deflect, but I'd be surprised if +/- 2 from the expectation were not common. Of your 3 bounties, one was better than expected and two were worse - which again sounds about right.

 

The anitdeflect doesn't sound far out either. If you have 8 deflects, and 35% get anti-deflected, then you would expect 2.8 of them to be antideflected, so getting 2 or 3 antideflects in a bounty should be par for the course.

 

How about a simple fix? If deflect 175 should activate 43.75% of times, for a given bounty on target B attempted by hunter A let it activate no more than 4 occasionally 5 and no less than 3 times. If another bounty hunter C attempts the same bounty, again deflect activates no more than 4 occasionally 5 times and no less than 3 times and so on.

 

So just to reinforce that, 4 deflects for 10 successes is a deflect rate of 29% (i.e. 4 deflects out of 14 attempts) not 44%. The real issue seems to be how you are interpreting the deflect activation rate.

Edited by rowbeth, 31 December 2013 - 14:29.

[koenvdv]

Chance is a b... bully

[bleacher12]

Bear in mind that streaks occur both ways - and check your logs for a streak of 8 kills in a row which is also quite unlikely.

 

HCS uses an imperfect PRNG - but it is not biased for or against the player. All my tests across all the aspects of the game that rely on it suggests the macroscopic values (hit %, variance etc.) are reproduced well, just with some  additional streakiness that is not necessarily true. Over many bounties your ratio will be 43.75% Deflect activation as it should be. Some bounties may be tougher (i.e. unluckier) than others and I understand the frustration.

 

Honestly - I ask you to look at your logs over an extended period (say 100 or 200 attacks) and post up your log if you actually get deflected more than 30% of the time when using anti-deflect. I've asked this before when people question my investigation and noone has yet posted any evidence outside of the odd single bounty which went badly.

 

Anecdotes like this (and by the way, 8 in a row is not bad luck for the BB) do not show anything is amiss.

Not sure why you are trying so hard to rationalize a poor implementation, why do I have to bear streakiness at all? If I wanted that I'd go play dice at a casino.

Again with the time rationalization, why do I need to wait for 200 attacks or 2000 to hope for things to even out? Why not simply use a more uniform PRNG? After all, these are programs its not like a dwarf is sitting and rolling dice every time you hit on a bounty. Feel free to defend with buffs and gear not dumb luck and lame rationalizations like 2 out of 3 is not that bad or wait for it to even out over 200 attacks.

 

8 is not bad luck? Come on, seriously? Bounties are meant to be punitive, even a single deflect is one too many. I can understand HCS's desire to use a streaky RNG, it makes things more exciting in most game play, but a bounty is not the place for it otherwise it loses its effectiveness.

 

It's like giving a man facing a firing squad a bullet proof shield he can swing around to block a few bullets before he gets nailed, what a great idea! Take your math geek hats off for a second to think about what you are rationalizing here.

[Shylark57]

Get over it.. Deflect sucks but it works like it should.. Maybe you want a easy button so it takes you less time.. I hate deflect but it doesn't need changed...

[vlkfenrir]

Not sure why you are trying so hard to rationalize a poor implementation, why do I have to bear streakiness at all? If I wanted that I'd go play dice at a casino.

Again with the time rationalization, why do I need to wait for 200 attacks or 2000 to hope for things to even out? Why not simply use a more uniform PRNG? After all, these are programs its not like a dwarf is sitting and rolling dice every time you hit on a bounty. Feel free to defend with buffs and gear not dumb luck and lame rationalizations like 2 out of 3 is not that bad or wait for it to even out over 200 attacks.

 

8 is not bad luck? Come on, seriously? Bounties are meant to be punitive, even a single deflect is one too many. I can understand HCS's desire to use a streaky RNG, it makes things more exciting in most game play, but a bounty is not the place for it otherwise it loses its effectiveness.

 

It's like giving a man facing a firing squad a bullet proof shield he can swing around to block a few bullets before he gets nailed, what a great idea! Take your math geek hats off for a second to think about what you are rationalizing here.

 

Well since the two posts before using mathematical logic have no real impact on the way You see it and You used paralel how would that look like if... I would like to point out that being put on BB means they have bounty on their head and they are basically on the run after crime, they are not already sentenced to death and facing firing squad. Deflect then would work like the chance they would hide, run etc. Being buffed and geared up would be their attempt to actually fight against the hunters. Just how I see it.

And when I am so close to it, deflect on BB is that bad? How much different is it from playing the ladder equipped in full set of epics with deflect on? Just a thought...

[bleacher12]

Well since the two posts before using mathematical logic have no real impact on the way You see it and You used paralel how would that look like if... I would like to point out that being put on BB means they have bounty on their head and they are basically on the run after crime, they are not already sentenced to death and facing firing squad. Deflect then would work like the chance they would hide, run etc. Being buffed and geared up would be their attempt to actually fight against the hunters. Just how I see it.

And when I am so close to it, deflect on BB is that bad? How much different is it from playing the ladder equipped in full set of epics with deflect on? Just a thought...

Agreed about the ladder, I especially dislike the baiters on the ladder, ladder hits should not be bountyable at all. Don't opt-in if you don't like getting hit, if you want the tokens, earn it, but that's another issue for a different day.

[bleacher12]

Get over it.. Deflect sucks but it works like it should.. Maybe you want a easy button so it takes you less time.. I hate deflect but it doesn't need changed...

I don't have a problem with deflect in the game in general, it works fine there, I think I've been very clear I don't want it changed either, bounties serve a specific purpose in the game and the hunters shouldn't be overly penalized due to the bounty format requirements for hits, again, keep the purpose of bounties in mind when you consider this argument.

[bleacher12]

Well since the two posts before using mathematical logic have no real impact on the way You see it and You used paralel how would that look like if... I would like to point out that being put on BB means they have bounty on their head and they are basically on the run after crime, they are not already sentenced to death and facing firing squad. Deflect then would work like the chance they would hide, run etc. Being buffed and geared up would be their attempt to actually fight against the hunters. Just how I see it.

And when I am so close to it, deflect on BB is that bad? How much different is it from playing the ladder equipped in full set of epics with deflect on? Just a thought...

The analogy stands, in the real world you would be correct in terms of how bounties work where it is in effect a mechanism to bring a person to in to face punitive action, but in the game it is equivalent to the execution of punitive action and not the process of bringing a person in for punitive action, there is nothing subsequent to the bounty in the game, the punitive action is the loss of XP via hits executed on the bounty.

 

Perhaps a better analogy could have been say 10 lashings or something similar, but again, you wouldn't be giving the person receiving the punishment an option to avoid lashes.

[bleacher12]

BB means they have bounty on their head and they are basically on the run after crime, they are not already sentenced to death and facing firing squad. Deflect then would work like the chance they would hide, run etc. Being buffed and geared up would be their attempt to actually fight against the hunters. Just how I see it.

Deflect activates during a hit which means the target is already acquired and being actively engaged, not chased. If we wanted the concept of the chase, wouldn't an actual chase be better than deflect?

The board could provide the map area the player is in, the hunter would need to locate the player on the map to hit, with stam compensation for the hunter being built in for a successful hit or some such equivalent. It would be more engaging and interesting than deflect.

[Shylark57]

NOTHING wrong with DEFLECT... Move on get over it.... And since you hate Deflect why do you have it on?????????