Posted 10 October 2014 - 20:53
Leos3000, on 10 Oct 2014 - 20:39, said:
Quick math so check if you want.
If average person wins 51% of the time and the average prize is 40 tokens. Also mostly based on 8 man tourney.
But you would get 15.4 tokens per tourney entered.
Wins? Wins tokens or arena? No avg player win 50% or I am a fool as my percentage is very very low... I have played every arena (i saw) level 1500 to EOC and have lost every one of them for weeks.
Posted 10 October 2014 - 20:55
I'm sure the average player gets 51% wins in all tournies entered 
- NOT
I've entered thousands and have just gone over 250 wins ..
(of course, I still suck at arena, but am trying .. .LOL)
Homer : Marge, don't discourage the boy. Weaseling out of things is important to learn. It's what separates us from the animals .. except the weasel.
Eddie Izzard : The National Rifle Association say that guns don't kill people, people do. But I think the gun helps, you know ? I think it helps. I think just standing there going "BANG" - that's not going to kill too many people, is it ?
I don't mean to sound pessimistic, but it seems that everything I eat lately turns to poo ...
Posted 10 October 2014 - 21:09
Leos3000, on 10 Oct 2014 - 20:39, said:
Quick math so check if you want.
If average person wins 51% of the time and the average prize is 40 tokens. Also mostly based on 8 man tourney.
But you would get 15.4 tokens per tourney entered.
2,000 tokens: 130 tournaments x 50k gold (or 32 FSPs & ~40 days) / one Epic then?
10,000 tokens: 650 tournaments x 50k gold (or 162.5 FSPs & ~200 days) / one Epic then?
It looks ok, I would get it for 2/3 of its price I think.
Posted 10 October 2014 - 21:18
avvakum, on 10 Oct 2014 - 19:17, said:
hmmm... we can calculate for a player with 51% winning percentage vs. other players. How many arenas and days are needed to get one Epic item?
51% win %...suuuuure...maybe the very very best..but i doubt even they have that %...i know mine over 4 years of playing is around 5% of the tourneys i enter..if that...i win about 1 out every 20-30 i enter..where are you coming up with this 51% thing..trying to make your arguement better ??? with false numbers ...or do you actually win 51% of the tourneys you enter ?? you are the arena master if you do....try using real numbers, by the majority of the players..not the super duper select few that win a lot...
Posted 10 October 2014 - 21:34
yodamus, on 10 Oct 2014 - 21:18, said:
51% win %...suuuuure...maybe the very very best..but i doubt even they have that %...i know mine over 4 years of playing is around 5% of the tourneys i enter..if that...i win about 1 out every 20-30 i enter..where are you coming up with this 51% thing..trying to make your arguement better ??? with false numbers ...or do you actually win 51% of the tourneys you enter ?? you are the arena master if you do....try using real numbers, by the majority of the players..not the super duper select few that win a lot...
I meant 51% winning percentage vs. other players. I think it's a reasonable number based on my researches in the past and now. My last 15 tournaments - 8 wins, 3 finals.
Posted 10 October 2014 - 21:50
avvakum, on 10 Oct 2014 - 21:34, said:
I meant 51% winning percentage vs. other players. I think it's a reasonable number based on my researches in the past and now. My last 15 tournaments - 8 wins, 3 finals.
make it 9 wins, 3 finals out of last 16 tournaments
Posted 10 October 2014 - 21:55
avvakum, on 10 Oct 2014 - 21:34, said:
I meant 51% winning percentage vs. other players. I think it's a reasonable number based on my researches in the past and now. My last 15 tournaments - 8 wins, 3 finals.
Yes, that is what I figured you meant. My math was based on winning each round at 51% odds so odds on getting to 2nd round is 51% to next round is 26% and winning is 13% roughly
Posted 10 October 2014 - 21:56
Actually, the Arena is speeding up right now... BG's comments are powerful lol...
Posted 10 October 2014 - 22:06
avvakum, on 10 Oct 2014 - 21:50, said:
make it 9 wins, 3 finals out of last 16 tournaments
That's 35 wins vs. other players in 42 combats = 83% winning percentage
Edited by avvakum, 10 October 2014 - 22:08.
Posted 10 October 2014 - 22:17
avvakum, on 10 Oct 2014 - 22:06, said:
That's 35 wins vs. other players in 42 combats = 83% winning percentage
of course an average over 100+ tourneys will be around 55-60%
Posted 11 October 2014 - 05:19
A good chance the competition will be higher, so 51% will be challenging
Posted 11 October 2014 - 13:34
Leos3000, on 10 Oct 2014 - 20:39, said:
Quick math so check if you want.
If average person wins 51% of the time and the average prize is 40 tokens. Also mostly based on 8 man tourney.
But you would get 15.4 tokens per tourney entered.
Shouldn't it be 10.3 tokens per 8 man/40 tokens tourney?
10 tokens x 0.51 + 10 tokens x 0.26 + 20 tokens x 0.13 = 10.3 tokens / tourney
Posted 11 October 2014 - 16:24
I am thinking epics in arena might be a bad idea.
Old players will come back, but new players will only be smashed in the mix of better players. The question is, of these old players how many were into controling the price of arena items.
Epics in arena will only increase arena until the better players stop making massive FSP and can no longer control the price of arena items just like in the past. Control arena, control price of rewards.
Getting to pick from all rewards should cut back their ability to control, but will it be enough
Posted 11 October 2014 - 16:36
justinian9, on 11 Oct 2014 - 16:24, said:
Control arena, control price of rewards.
It's impossible to control the arena. Nobody can cover all the lvl ranges and different conditions. There are many players who are changing/improving their setups/strategies all the time, so it's a very competitive environment, where nobody can control prices
Edited by avvakum, 11 October 2014 - 16:38.
Posted 11 October 2014 - 16:45
avvakum, on 11 Oct 2014 - 16:16, said:
An Epic item for 10,000 Arena tokens in numbers:
An average Arena player will get 10,000 tokens in 3-4 months and joining the tourneys will cost about 300 FSPs, so the market's price for such an item would need to be around 400-600 FSPs.
Posted 11 October 2014 - 16:57
Really? Controlling Arena's can be winning 80 - 90% of battles in the ranges you play... control can be talking to other players that "control" a range of arena's to control prices.
Contol can be come in may different forms. Why are players trying to seperate the arena if players are not "controlling" the arena thruogh winning vast majority of battles?
Posted 11 October 2014 - 17:31
justinian9, on 11 Oct 2014 - 16:57, said:
Really? Controlling Arena's can be winning 80 - 90% of battles in the ranges you play... control can be talking to other players that "control" a range of arena's to control prices.
Contol can be come in may different forms. Why are players trying to seperate the arena if players are not "controlling" the arena thruogh winning vast majority of battles?
The good thing about the arena is that players can learn from the losses and re-design their setups/strategies for the next tournament in that lvl range. Efforts are rewarding in the Arena, but players need a proper motivation, Epic items for example. I think the high competition will make it 50/50 for everyone eventually.
For each 100 lvls in the arena you need approximately 100+ Perf/FF items, so that's 1500-2500 Perf/FF items (& BP) - 100,000-150,000 FSPs investments. Don't see how few players can control all this. Besides, by the time an average arena player will get 10,000 tokens, about other 6 - 10 millions tokens will be in the hands of other arena players depending on how it all will speed up the arena, that's 600-1000 Epic items in 3-5 months.
Posted 11 October 2014 - 18:13
I have side tracked this subject.. Sorry all.
I am no longer for epics in Arena, unless players or HCS can ensure this does not become another area to be exploited. I have no issue with better players earning more token and as such more profit, I have an issue with controlling prices.
Good systems already in place: tokens going to more then 1st place and open pick of what rewards you can buy.
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