18 replies to this topic

[sweetlou]

Can Hoof please take a look at the anti-d buff? There is no way with the buff active you should be deflected 6, 7 and 8 times in one bounty. No way!!

[Yuuzhan]

Your get your friend to flip a coin.  He does it 10 times and it comes up heads 5 times and tails 5 times.  Its a good evenly weighted coin.

 

IYou take that coin and flip it.  It comes up heads.  You flip it again, and it comes up heads!  you flip the coin again and OMG it comes up heads.

 

After 5 minutes of flipping this coin they have all been heads.  you lost count of how many in a row you have done you are just mistified by your amazing luck.  your friend is counting for you, he mentions something about you are up to 600 heads in a row!  You are both flipping out!?!

 

What is the chance that you flip heads again on that next one?

[Mister Doom]

I remember Derren Brown doing something similar with coin flips. Not 600 though, just ten. It's unlikely, given that a coin flip is the ultimate 50/50, but it's not impossible. He spent all day trying to get 10 heads in a row, got it in the end though.

[yghorbeviahn]

Anti-Deflect: +0.2% per point chance to prevent your opponent activating Deflect.

lvl 175 = 35%

 

Deflect: +0.25% chance per point that a player attacking you will automatically fail before combat starts .

lvl 175 = 43,75%

 

That means the defending player have 43,75% of chance to deflect the attack, and the attacker have 35% of chance to avoid the Deflect buff being activated.

 

Using extremelly raw numbers, on 10 attacks the defender will avoid 4 attacks and the attacker will avoid 1-2 of that activation of Deflect. You should be able to do 7-8 clean hits without activation of Deflect.

 

But I agree, sometimes the numbers go crazy, I remember to have 8 Deflects on a row, using Anti-D.

[Saxon]

Anti-deflect activation is too low based on the 35% activation stat.

 

I have experienced 7+ deflects on a single bounty while using anti-deflect, which just doesn't make sense.

 

Just stop deflect activating on bounty hits and keep it active on the ladder and direct hits - problem solved (on the BB anyway)

[MummRa]

Anti-deflect activation is too low based on the 35% activation stat.

 

I have experienced 7+ deflects on a single bounty while using anti-deflect, which just doesn't make sense.

 

Just stop deflect activating on bounty hits and keep it active on the ladder and direct hits - problem solved (on the BB anyway)

 

truth is as I was taught by one of my first mentors in this game... why would you want to have deflect when on the BB?  you're more likely to frustrate people after a couple of attacks and thus stay on the board longer.  In fact I wouldn't blame bounty hunters if they had a gentlemen's (or women's) agreement to leave bounties (that are using deflect) on the board and only attack 9x

[sweetlou]

Thanks for the replies!

 

I'd still request an answer from Hoof. If he could look into it and make sure it's working properly. Buffs have broken in the past and I am absolutely sure something isn't working the way it should.

 

Thank you.

[DeadParrot]

Your get your friend to flip a coin.  He does it 10 times and it comes up heads 5 times and tails 5 times.  Its a good evenly weighted coin.

 

IYou take that coin and flip it.  It comes up heads.  You flip it again, and it comes up heads!  you flip the coin again and OMG it comes up heads.

 

After 5 minutes of flipping this coin they have all been heads.  you lost count of how many in a row you have done you are just mistified by your amazing luck.  your friend is counting for you, he mentions something about you are up to 600 heads in a row!  You are both flipping out!?!

 

What is the chance that you flip heads again on that next one?

 

The answer is 50%.  However, the chance of flipping 601 heads in a row, is far more minute, so much so, I don't wish to figure it out.  Fun problem though.

 

DP

[RageAnger]

I have done a bounty before with anti deflect vs deflect and been deflected maybe once. But most of the time I get deflect 8-12 times. I think it is for sure broken. I will add that deflect is definitely Satan incarnated and the only point of it is to discourage pvping. I know I have gotten to the point that I do a bounty and I get deflected about 4-5 times in a row and then I always remember how much I hate bounty hunting because of it. We should be able to vote to get rid of deflect then not count the votes of people that vote for it.

[sweetlou]

Spellbreaker was broken for years before it was fixed! Now, Spell Leach has been broken for at least a year, where it only takes a buff and doesn't replace a buff on you, regardless of level, EVER. So the Hunted cow management doesn't respond well anymore to bugs, even seemingly simple ones. Should I say they don't care? No. They just don't put any resources into the game anymore. How seldom is content coming out? It's all rather sad. Instead I'll just wait for another uber pot promo at 20%.

[Savanc]

 

Anti-Deflect: +0.2% per point chance to prevent your opponent activating Deflect.

lvl 175 = 35%

 

Deflect: +0.25% chance per point that a player attacking you will automatically fail before combat starts .

lvl 175 = 43,75%

 

That means the defending player have 43,75% of chance to deflect the attack, and the attacker have 35% of chance to avoid the Deflect buff being activated.

 

Using extremelly raw numbers, on 10 attacks the defender will avoid 4 attacks and the attacker will avoid 1-2 of that activation of Deflect. You should be able to do 7-8 clean hits without activation of Deflect.

 

I don't think it works that way, but instead that it works like this:

 

Each attack has a chance to be deflected. There is a 100% - 43.75% = 56.25%  that Deflect will not activate.

If Deflect does (want) to activate then there is a 35% chance that Anti-Deflect will stop it, and a 65% chance that Deflect still activates.

35% of 43.75% = 15.3125%.

65% of 43.75% = 28.4375%.
 

The chance of Deflect activating = 28.4375%

The chance of Deflect not activating = 56.25% + 15.3125% = 71.5625%

 

 

A bounty usually ends when someone completes 10 successful attacks on a target. If 1 attack gets deflected then we still need 10 successful attacks, but the total number of attack is 11 (10 + 1 because one attack is deflected). I am assuming only 1 attacker is clearing the bounty, so even if the attacker gets deflected a few time they still are able to finish the 10 successful attacks.

 

The chance of getting 0 or more attacks deflected in 1 bounty = 100.00% (Duh...)

The chance of getting 1 or more attacks deflected in 1 bounty = 97.48%

The chance of getting 2 or more attacks deflected in 1 bounty = 89.59%

The chance of getting 3 or more attacks deflected in 1 bounty = 76.14%

The chance of getting 4 or more attacks deflected in 1 bounty = 59.56%

The chance of getting 5 or more attacks deflected in 1 bounty = 43.06%

The chance of getting 6 or more attacks deflected in 1 bounty = 28.98%

The chance of getting 7 or more attacks deflected in 1 bounty = 18.30%

The chance of getting 8 or more attacks deflected in 1 bounty = 10.93%

The chance of getting 9 or more attacks deflected in 1 bounty = 6.21%

The chance of getting 10 or more attacks deflected in 1 bounty = 3.38%

The chance of getting 11 or more attacks deflected in 1 bounty = 1.77%

The chance of getting 12 or more attacks deflected in 1 bounty = 0.89%

The chance of getting 13 or more attacks deflected in 1 bounty = 0.44%

The chance of getting 14 or more attacks deflected in 1 bounty = 0.21%

The chance of getting 15 or more attacks deflected in 1 bounty = 0.10%

 

 

So it is not unlikely that a person that uses Anti Deflect and is attacking a person with Deflect will still get their attacks deflected a number of times.

[Hoofmaster]

I checked the code and it looks to be correct

[sweetlou]

Thanks for taking a look! Correct? Hoof, with all due respect, how can being deflected 8 times in one bounty with Anti-d active be correct for the game? I can only imagine how many times you'd be deflected without Anti-d. It's overkill. If this is the way it's designed can you tweek it a little? You did add an opt out with PvP protection(and one you can even buy with gold that is so cheap it's criminal...), so don't you think the scale was skewed a little too far to one side? Can something be done? Again, your time in the matter is appreciated.

[Mister Doom]

Perhaps it would just be simpler to change deflect so it no longer works on the bounty board?

 

Deflect can be a really useful thing to those that don't want to pvp, so I'm not sure messing with it or AD's activation rates is going to go down to well, however, someone on the BB is already not a stranger to good old pvp.

 

It's just when I hear these horror stories about deflect, its almost always BB related. If you get deflected while attempting a gold hit, then it a case of epic facepalm and move on. With bounties you kinda HAVE to keep on hitting. Just take deflect out of that equation. There are still plenty of buffs to help defend on a BB. Plus with the bounties actually having an expiry time, having something that extends a players time up on there, without battle actually taking place is a kind of 'rip off' anyway?

[vastilos]

The Deflect buff is what's broken. It activates more than 70% of the time. That is the real issue.

[Savanc]

The Deflect buff is what's broken. It activates more than 70% of the time. That is the real issue.

 

That's not what I have experienced the last few months.

 

Also if Deflect 175 was working as 70% and you are not using Anti Deflect then you'll have a 89.8% chance to have 15 deflects or more in a bounty of 10 successful attacks.

With Anti Deflect 175 it would then decrease to an 88.7% chance to have 5 deflects or more, and a chance of 10.5% to have 15 deflects or more.

 

I doubt that is what people have been experiencing. I surely don't recognize that...

 

 

Seems to me that Deflect and Anti Deflect are working like they should be according to their descriptions.

[yghorbeviahn]

+1 to remove Deflect from BB.

It's a PitA to try clear someone on BB and have 7+ Deflects...I remeber one time which I have reached the mark of 13 Deflects on a single bounty, 8 on a row...i know the numbers can go crazy sometimes, but that is ridiculous.

[rowbeth]

Hey, guys - lets not forget that we are not talking about a single trial. We have perhaps hundreds of people trying this multiple times each week. The odds that one of those multiple experiments turns up this "unbiased" result gets very high. And surprisingly, the ones who notice are the few that get the unlikely occurence.

 

The odds of me winning the lottery this week are about a billion to one - so it will never happen. But so many people buy lottery tickets that some one does win every week. And out of all these people, guess who makes the big song and dace about it.

 

Or going back to Derren Brown (Doom's post), if you had 1000 people flipping a coin 10 times, you'd actually expect one of them to get all 10 heads.

 

This is just the way random events go when you have large numbers of trials - as we do in FS. And it seems more likely because we never bother to report the expected outcomes.

[rowbeth]

Sweetlou

 

If you want to convince HCS that something is wrong, you might like to look at the effort Rjem put into doing reliable statistical analyses in his series of "Mythbusters" posts. For example, to demonstrate an error in the Find Item rate he actually collected data on 7000 battles (http://forums.hunted...0&hl=mythbuster). That was probably a more extreme example, but he typically accumulates more than 500 data points in order to get beyond the random element.