37 replies to this topic

[bleacher12]

Could Hoof or someone from HCS please chime in?

 

I just completed a bounty where the target had Deflect (175) active and I had Anti-Deflect (175) active and I had 8 attacks deflected on that bounty with Anti-Deflect activating just twice, does it not seem a tad excessive?

 

I was provided with the following calculations by another player:

If you opponent has deflect level 175 (43.75% chance to defect) and you have anti-deflect 175 (reduces that percetage by 35%, so in this situation it is 43.75%*0.65 => so deflect will still have 28.4375% chance to activate)

 

a) Is the above calculation correct? If yes, for this bounty the activation was 44.44% which is more than Deflect should activate at all!

 

Even assuming the overall percentage of Deflect activation across all attacks in the game is within 43.75%, leaving the extent of activation in a single bounty to random luck seems unfair to the hunter.

 

Can you please clarify whether the above calculations for Deflect activation are correct? If not, can you please provide the correct calculations?

 

Proposal: Can the activations for Deflect against a given bounty hunter on a given bounty please be capped to the maximum probability of Deflect activation in general? If these calculations are correct, against a given hunter on a given bounty Deflect should activate no more than 4 times.

[RebornJedi]

the odds are never in your favor..

[RebornJedi]

Anti Deflect just gives you a 35% chance to prevent your opponent activating Deflect.. there is no reduction, just a chance. 

[bleacher12]

the odds are never in your favor..

Doesn't matter if they are not, I'm interested in understanding precisely what they are and are they being enforced correctly and if they can be enforced uniformly in a limited set such as a bounty.

[bleacher12]

Anti Deflect just gives you a 35% chance to prevent your opponent activating Deflect.. there is no reduction, just a chance. 

If it activates it negates deflect thus reducing overall instances of deflect were it not used.

[Shadow19231]

If it activates it negates deflect thus reducing overall instances of deflect were it not used.

That's true but that's not what he said. What Jedi said was that it doesn't directly reduce the buff's chance to activate. Whether or not it reduces the overall activation rate is beside the point

Edited by Shadow19231, 28 December 2013 - 03:57.

[bleacher12]

That's true but that's not what he said. What Jedi said was that it doesn't directly reduce the buff's chance to activate. Whether or not it reduces the overall activation rate is beside the point

I don't think such a reduction was claimed, all that was put out is the effective deflects an attacker should observe. In any case Jedi's comment argues a semantic which is not relevant to the overall issue being discussed or the proposal put forward and discussing it simply digresses from the point of the post which is whether such a high rate of deflects on a bounty correct? What is the correct calculation of probabilities and can it be enforced on a bounty as a set? 

[Shadow19231]

I don't think such a reduction was claimed, all that was put out is the effective deflects an attacker should observe. In any case Jedi's comment argues a semantic which is not relevant to the overall issue being discussed or the proposal put forward and discussing it simply digresses from the point of the post which is whether such a high rate of deflects on a bounty correct? What is the correct calculation of probabilities and can it be enforced on a bounty as a set? 

Whereas you're true on all points there, i was simple just pointing out that when you had said what you said, it just didn't disprove what he was saying at all. Regardless, I'm too stupid to really know the formula for it. Good luck with your post

[Kbyte]

I've seen the skill list now and I think that HCS calculate deflect and anti-deflect this way. Deflect 175 => 43,75% (chance to deflect), Anti-Deflect 175 (35% chance to prevent Deflect from activating). So 43,75% * 0,35 = 15,3125% (chance to Anti-D prevent Deflect from happening when it activates), so 43,75% - 15,3125% = 28,4375% chance to deflect still activate [and it still matches with the percentage above]

Edited by Kbyte, 28 December 2013 - 12:58.

[yghorbeviahn]

When I'm facing a bounty with Deflect i NEVER get less than 6 Deflects on the same bounty, using Anti-D.

I remember to get 13 Deflects on the same bounty (6 on a row), using Anti-D.

[Kildek]

 

Could Hoof or someone from HCS please chime in?

 

I just completed a bounty where the target had Deflect (175) active and I had Anti-Deflect (175) active and I had 8 attacks deflected on that bounty with Anti-Deflect activating just twice, does it not seem a tad excessive?

<snip>

This has been discussed a bunch of times already.

As the Mythbuster here: http://forums.hunted...&hl=mythbusters

Another one where Hoofmaster confirmed the code: http://forums.hunted...showtopic=58580

From those 2 threads the overall math is "ok".

 

Personally i think while the overall distribution of "randomness" matches what is expected,

the main problem is that the random number generator is not random enough, and things happen in streaks. I have seen this happen both with scavenging, extraction, crafting and Four Leaf skill kicking in. I remember that during a GvG Deflect kicked in so often, chance of that to happen was like 1:100.000. What needs fixing are these streaks.

Edited by Kildek, 28 December 2013 - 14:56.

[bleacher12]

<snip>

This has been discussed a bunch of times already.

As the Mythbuster here: http://forums.hunted...&hl=mythbusters

Another one where Hoofmaster confirmed the code: http://forums.hunted...showtopic=58580

From those 2 threads the overall math is "ok".

 

Personally i think while the overall distribution of "randomness" matches what is expected,

the main problem is that the random number generator is not random enough, and things happen in streaks. I have seen this happen both with scavenging, extraction, crafting and Four Leaf skill kicking in. I remember that during a GvG Deflect kicked in so often, chance of that to happen was like 1:100.000. What needs fixing are these streaks.

 

Thanks for the posts Kildek, that myth busting is a ridiculous farce, use a peanut sample size, rinse and repeat till the results match your own myth busting hypothesis or you get lucky on your first shot, its worse than the myth since it disguises itself as a scientific approach.

I'll believe the efficacy of the RNG used by HCS when they post the results for their RNG using the dieharder test suites, not the results of 30 GVG hits. Better yet post in real time the distribution of combats and deflects as they occur across the game, short of that, the anecdotal evidence suggests otherwise.

 

In the post by Hoof, all he said was the code is OK, no evidence or explanation of any form was offered.

 

"Personally i think while the overall distribution of "randomness" matches what is expected" - What is the expectation and how are you verifying it is matched?

In my original post, I'm not necessarily questioning the math, I conceded that the overall distribution may be to HCS's expectations, what I asked is:

1 - Could they please provide an official clarification on the calculations?

2 - Could they cap deflect activations on a given bounty by a given bounty hunter to the probabilistic limit as a complete set in and off itself?

 

The second would address the 'streakiness' hypothesis which most anecdotal evidence matches and make the game a little fairer for bounty hunters who bear the brunt of this without in anyway changing the probability of deflect activating so not reducing its defensive value in any way.

[Mister Doom]

Simple answer...

Remove Deflects ability to function on the bounty board.

 

This way it doesn't make bounties long and boring with a ton of deflects.

 

AND

 

It doesn't nerf the Deflect buff for those that wish to use it for PvE or PvP ladder, wars etc.

[yghorbeviahn]

My proposal is:

Leave the numbers as they are now, don't buff up Anti-D or buff down Deflect. Keep them on BB, normal hits and GvG (not sure about Ladder).

BUT, makes Deflect impossible to activate on 10stam hits.


 

[Chazz224]

Deflect 0.25% chance per point that a player attacking you will automatically fail before combat starts.

   Caluclation : 0.25 x 175 = 43.75% 

 

( Please note that this percentage is used and only applies to the person with this buff. Meaning that if you are attacking the person with deflect that your attack is deflected of course you are one of the 43.75%. However if your second and third attacks are also deflected it could be due to other people attacking the samer perosn as well. In short the design of this buff is to throw people off hence the deflect. However the 43.75% chance applies to the player using it not the attacker trying to get past it.  This is what may confuse players at times I think. )

 

Anti Deflect 0.2% per point chance to prevent your opponent from deflecting your attack.

Caluclation 0.2% X 175 = 35%

 

Pretty open and shut case right here, for each attack you make on a person who is using Deflect there is a 35% that you can pass his deflect by and still initiate combat.  This 35% is in no way affecting the players deflect at all. They are on seperate timers actually despite what you may think. When you see that Anti deflect activated it did not reduce deflect on the player in any way. This merely allowed you to gain access to combat despite his deflect.

 

For example you attack player A who has Deflect and you have Anti deflect ( you being player

 

Player A deflects your attack however your Anti Deflect kicks giving you access to initiate combat now against player A.

 

this is roughly how it works, and given by your question despite a formula for precison I think this might be the answer you are looking for....

 

 

- Chazz

[bleacher12]

Thanks Chazz, the math part is fairly straightforward, I get that, I think the issue is with implementation, to illustrate:

• on 3 consecutive bounties yesterday I saw 8, 5 and 8 deflects (all level 175) in each of those bounties
• I had Anti-Deflect activate 2 times (again level 175), so that means Deflect actually activated 10, 7 and 10 times on those bounties.

Does it not seem excessive that on 3 bounties requiring a total of 30 hits to clear, Deflect activated 27 times?

 

The math geeks here are going to say truly random events will be streaky and that over a large sample size it will even out, ok, how large are we talking here? 10,000, 100,000, a million? Lets get real does it make any sense to ask a bounty hunter to be patient for it to get evened out over that many hits?

 

How about a simple fix? If deflect 175 should activate 43.75% of times, for a given bounty on target B attempted by hunter A let it activate no more than 4 occasionally 5 and no less than 3 times. If another bounty hunter C attempts the same bounty, again deflect activates no more than 4 occasionally 5 times and no less than 3 times and so on.

[sweetlou]

There is without a doubt a difference in activation on the BB and off it. It activates much more often then the 43% on the board and with Anti-D running. Without Anti-D, Deflect should activate 43%. So, Anti-D doesn't do s*** on the BB! Off the BB Anti-D seems to work fine.

[DomCorvis]

 

Could Hoof or someone from HCS please chime in?

 

I just completed a bounty where the target had Deflect (175) active and I had Anti-Deflect (175) active and I had 8 attacks deflected on that bounty with Anti-Deflect activating just twice, does it not seem a tad excessive?

 

 

LMAO yeah it activated a lot last night(the bounty in question was mine iirc)...not nearly the highest ive ever seen....I had 13+ deflects on a single bounty recently. Deflect has always been one of the buffs thats activation rate has been questioned.

 

As far as the rate being different on BB....I can see that. It seemed that way years ago when i started and even remains the same with A-D. 

 

 

I see no reason to change game mechanices now after how many years of EVERYBODY dealing with deflect for so long....

[bleacher12]

LMAO yeah it activated a lot last night(the bounty in question was mine iirc)...not nearly the highest ive ever seen....I had 13+ deflects on a single bounty recently. Deflect has always been one of the buffs thats activation rate has been questioned.

 

As far as the rate being different on BB....I can see that. It seemed that way years ago when i started and even remains the same with A-D. 

 

 

I see no reason to change game mechanices now after how many years of EVERYBODY dealing with deflect for so long....

One was yours and there was another too , but I noticed it before too.

 

I can empathize with your sentiment of having dealt with it a long while as have Luis and others and I tip my hat to you guys but I don't think that should be reason alone to not improve it going forward as by that parameter there would be no progress in anything anywhere.

I think the suggestion made is reasonable, we aren't getting rid of it, we don't affect how the buff works in general, we simply cap its activation during bounties, both a lower and upper bound.

[Shylark57]

@ bleacher12... Only 8 times???? Try I had one activated 14 times... And I had anti deflect on for 6 of those 14 times.. The way I have heard deflect has always been about the same do your self a favor get some Breaker Pot off the Potion Bazaar.. Had a guy with deflect on 3rd hit I stripped his Deflect and I went on withe the bounty... They don't cost a lot and I have had them work.. This was the 4th time I had used them 3rd time had it kick in and get rid of the Deflect.. Now I maybe lucky but I am happy.. 

Good Luck..