25 replies to this topic

[Maj]

Summary: I'm on the ladder and got deflected 5 times in a row without my anti-deflect triggering at least once in 5 tries.

 

 

Me: Anti Deflect 175

Target: Deflect 175

 

Deflect 175 (0.25% per point, total of 43.75% activation chance)

Anti Deflect 175 (0.2% per point, total of 35% activation chance)

 

07:06 17/Oct/2014 Your attack on XXX was deflected.
06:05 17/Oct/2014 Your attack on XXX was deflected.
04:14 17/Oct/2014 Your attack on XXX was deflected.
02:55 17/Oct/2014 Your attack on XXX was deflected.
01:37 17/Oct/2014 Your attack on XXX was deflected.

 

Probability of Deflect activating 5x in a row:

0.4375 ^ 5 = 0.01602840423583984375 or 1.602840423583984375%

~ 1.6%

 

Probability of Anti-Deflect not activating at all in 5 tries:

0.65 ^ 5 = 0.1160290625 or 11.60290625%

~ 11.6%

 

 

As you can see above, the probability of either case occurring (especially the first one) is so low that it makes me wonder whether there are other variables involved that aren't being disclosed aside from those percentages written in the skills' description.

 

 

I would appreciate it if anyone (especially from HCS) can give any info on this.

 

 

 

Edit:

 

Please stop posting about 'nerfs' or 'changes'. There's no point in going thru these topics until HCS actually fixes the implementation of the skills.

 

And thanks to Kildek for the links. The posts made me realize just how often this problem occurs (which also spills over to inventing, resource extraction, item drops, etc). 12 Deflects in a row on the same target = 0.0049% chance of happening, its ridiculous. I've had similar streaks when extracting components and getting more than 8+ of the same component in a single batch. So this could also be an issue with the RNG used.

 

 

Edit Edit:

 

I checked the code and it looks to be correct 

 

Assuming if this is true (a big IF), he should look into the RNG used. Streaks of 7+ should only happen very rarely.

Edited by Maj, 18 October 2014 - 09:19.

[Davros81]

This does make the ladder an even bigger farce than it already is unfortunately, it changes the game into a lucky dip lottery or perseverance as to whom can stay online the longest and has the most luck. Lest we even start on all the other luck buffs associated with pvp, High Guard, Golden Shield and the list goes on...   

[BadPenny]

DEFLECTED!    Yeah, it's way overpowered.... what else is new?  Do what I do when I encounter deflect... get SB and SL. too.... You should try doing a bounty, and having it kick in 9 times in a row (yeah,  I hate it, too)

[Maj]

Well, yes, SB / SL / Sealed are a given against heavily-buffed targets. But they won't even have a chance to trigger because Deflect activates even before combat starts.

 

At least in bounty hunting you only have to wait every 2-minute intervals per hit, as opposed to a 1-hour-long wait on the ladder.

 

But the main concern is if the implementation of Deflect / Anti-Deflect stays true to their skill descriptions?

Edited by Maj, 17 October 2014 - 16:38.

[BadPenny]

Believe me, I feel your pain.... based on my bounty hunting experience, AD (175) actually kicks in fairly often, about 30% of the time.... Deflect *growls*  DEFLECT(any level) kicks in about 65% of the time....  My SB (175) kills a buff about every third battle (that gets through deflect)  and SL (175) works about 5% of the time.  Sealed, I don't use that much, usually when somebody ninja buffs me with it, so I have no clue about it.

 

Yeah, our magicks are pretty wacky.... but, what are you gonna do, right?

 

 

Please, Big guy, can we turn deflect down some?  It's really annoying....

[justinian9]

why change deflect?  We all deal with it... Leveler and Pvper alike if we attack each other... it is one of the best defensive buffs out there. Yes, it sucks when it kicks in so often.  I have had it kick in 5 times in a row on ladder hits on same player and 7 or 8 times (cannot remember which) while 100 staming a player on the BB so I understand how you feel. 

 

However,  I do not have to deal with it as much as you guys as I do not PvP that much. 

[Kildek]

Another thread, with the goal to get Deflect nerved...
Deflect has been discussed a bunch of times already.

As the Mythbuster here: http://forums.hunted...&hl=mythbusters

Another one where Hoofmaster confirmed the code: http://forums.hunted...showtopic=58580

Yet another where RJEM (the original poster of the Mythbuster) comments on the math.
http://forums.hunted...uring-bounties/

From those 3 threads the overall math is "ok".

The problem is, that the random number generator is not random enough, and things happen in streaks.

[RebornJedi]

I hope it gets buffed

[Removed18058]

I hope it gets buffed

 

me too should be 0.4 per point imo

[RebornJedi]

There is an anti deflect 250 achievable in the game. Which is 50% activation.. Get to grinding those composing levels

If they nerf it, and that compsoing buff becomes the norm - players will talk about how useless deflect is and ask for a higher level potion of deflect.. Wait till PvP is revamped and you'll be thankful for its activation rate..

[BadPenny]

There is also one of my favorites, Potion of the Buff Thief.... It just keeps me laughing

[Maj]

why change deflect?  We all deal with it... Leveler and Pvper alike if we attack each other... it is one of the best defensive buffs out there. Yes, it sucks when it kicks in so often.  I have had it kick in 5 times in a row on ladder hits on same player and 7 or 8 times (cannot remember which) while 100 staming a player on the BB so I understand how you feel. 

 

However,  I do not have to deal with it as much as you guys as I do not PvP that much. 

 

You realize how low the probability is for Deflect 175 to activate 7 or 8 times in a row, given the current definition of 0.25% per skill point chance?

 

Just because we all deal with it doesn't mean we have to put up with it if its broken. If the skill isn't implemented the way it is written in the skill description then there is a big problem either in the RNG or in the game code itself.

 

 

 

Another thread, with the goal to get Deflect nerved...
Deflect has been discussed a bunch of times already.

As the Mythbuster here: http://forums.hunted...&hl=mythbusters

Another one where Hoofmaster confirmed the code: http://forums.hunted...showtopic=58580

Yet another where RJEM (the original poster of the Mythbuster) comments on the math.
http://forums.hunted...uring-bounties/

From those 3 threads the overall math is "ok".

The problem is, that the random number generator is not random enough, and things happen in streaks.

 

No one is asking for a nerf right now (another topic, another thread). I don't have a problem with the math, but the question is if the math on paper is actually implemented exactly in code.

 

And thanks for the links. The posts made me realize how often this problem occurs (which also spills over to inventing, resource extraction, item drops, etc). 12 Deflects in a row on the same target = 0.0049% chance of happening, its ridiculous.

 

 

 

There is an anti deflect 250 achievable in the game. Which is 50% activation.. Get to grinding those composing levels 

If they nerf it, and that compsoing buff becomes the norm - players will talk about how useless deflect is and ask for a higher level potion of deflect.. Wait till PvP is revamped and you'll be thankful for its activation rate..

 

 

Sure there is. But is Deflect and Anti-Deflect working as intended?

Edited by Maj, 18 October 2014 - 09:19.

[yghorbeviahn]

I know someone already tryed the 'mythbusters' thing and got the results very close to the numbers said on buff description, the problem is with those big strings of Deflect.

Like I said on another topic, for Deflect should work just like SSI, after deflecting X times you lose the buff, doesn't matter who hit you. But with the % of chance to activate.

[Maj]

Yes ygh, there could be a big problem in the RNG used.

[rowbeth]

The problem isn't in the strings, and it isn't in the RNG; its that everyone keeps forgetting how often they have tried in order to get those strings.

 

Maj describes a 1-in-1000 chance (1/100 for the deflect times 1/10 for the antideflect). If you have 10 people making 10 hits every day, then collectively they would expect to get this string once every 10 days.

 

When you do something a lot, then unlikely events do happen regularly.

Edited by rowbeth, 18 October 2014 - 14:39.

[BadPenny]

I do an average of 4 bounties a day and my 30 or so prestige hits every third day (yeah, I actually have that many in range) Plus the occasional gold theft.  Deflect kicks in way more than it should in my experience.  It's the norm, not the exception, for it to kick in several times in a row on a bounty.  Definitely irritating if you are racing another hunter... it can mean losing out on the medal tick (yeah, I know, boo hoo). By the same token, I always use AD 175 and my own little 175 SB, when I bounty hunt (sorry, deflect and erosion make me do it)  AD is kicking in a lot, and my SB is truly magical.  So, the randomness factor does make things fall into place.  I don't see any of us stopping complaining about it though, after all, what else are we to talk about, hmm?

[Davros81]

I want a Roshambo skill, which gives me a chance to kick my opponent square in the nuts

[wil72]

I want a Roshambo skill, which gives me a chance to kick my opponent square in the nuts

 

Yarbles

 

Cheers.

 

wil72

[bigchaos]

Giggles yeah sometimes you like to have a buff that lets you make direct contact and by-pass the deflect buff. 

[Kildek]

The problem isn't in the strings, and it isn't in the RNG; its that everyone keeps forgetting how often they have tried in order to get those strings.

 

Maj describes a 1-in-1000 chance (1/100 for the deflect times 1/10 for the antideflect). If you have 10 people making 10 hits every day, then collectively they would expect to get this string once every 10 days.

 

When you do something a lot, then unlikely events do happen regularly.

 

Please check out the links i have provided:  http://forums.hunted...on/#entry895106

In these threads many players have noticed these streaks. Many mainly see it when deflect kicks in. But the flawed RNG affects all aspects of the game play. Be it 4-leaf, crafting, extraction or the caves etc. Hoofmaster only confirmed the code for deflect, never the randomness of the RNG. Some of these streaks are so unlikely to happen, players should not see them on a regular basis (even when playing often). In my opinion there are enough reports of these streaks, to give a reason for HCS to get the code/randomness of the RNG verified.

 

Edited by Kildek, 19 October 2014 - 02:17.