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Fallen Sword Mythbusters: Part 1 - Deflect


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#1 RJEM

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 03:40

So, I was extremely bored this evening and decided to do a little experiment with Deflect and find out whether the horror tales of neverending bounties and frustrated GvGers had any substance to them besides being just bad luck.

To do this, I equipped myself inadequately and went out to do 3 GvGs against large guilds (to save me some time!). I chose For Fracks Sake, The Eternal Warriors and angellife thanks mainly to their large number of targets in my range and also because they are conveniently at the top of the ladder ;) Many thanks to them for their assistance in this.

Every target was buffed with Deflect 175 prior to me beginning the conflict and I wasn't concerned about the actual result of each fight - just the rate of activation of deflect. As we know from the skill description, Deflect 175 should result in a failed attack 43.75% of the time. Keep that number in the front of your minds.

On to my findings:

1st Conflict: FFS


100 successful attacks required 158 attempts on my part (incidentally I won 26 times :P)
Deflect Activation Rate: 36.71%

2nd Conflict: TEW

50 successful attacks required 94 attempts on my part (10 wins here, go me!)
Deflect Activation Rate: 46.81%

3rd Conflict: angellife

50 successful attacks required just 81 attempts (with 6 wins :()
Deflect Activation Rate: 38.27%

_____________________________________
Overall Totals

333 attempted attacks
133 deflected attacks

Deflect Activation Rate: 39.93%

This is a reasonable number - but is it perhaps lower than it should be?

The p-value for 200 attacks from 333 attempts (assuming a null hypothesis with a 43.75% probability of failure for each attack) is 0.089. Although low, the null hypothesis would *not* be rejected at this level in most scientific fields. Essentially, a 40% activation rate over 333 attempts is within acceptable random variation about the hypothesised rate.

Just so all of you bounty hunters feel happier, I did have a look through my raw data and found the following pair of sequences. I assumed I would need 10 successful attacks to complete the bounty, and I can feel your pain. a = Attack, d = Deflect.

1. ddaddaddaaddadddddddaddddaaaa = 29 hits to get 10 kills
2. ddddadddddddaddaaddaddaddaaaaa = 30 hits to get 10 kills

However, in the long run I actually got quite lucky and had my share of long winning streaks too. This was the best I could find:

1. aaadaaaaddaaaaaaaadadddaadaaaaddaaaaa = 37 hits with only 10 deflected

My advice: Be positive. If you're in a bit of a mire just keep dreaming of the day you breeze through deflect like it wasn't there. It will happen - eventually!

Next up, I'll be taking a look at whether FI 800 really is better than FI 1000 when scavenging. I just need to find some (lots of) gold before I start :)

#2 Khanate

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 03:41

SOME PEOPLE JUST GOT TOLD

#3 MaximusGR

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 03:45

*Looks at log* So thats what you ve been up to! Good research :) All RNG's may show streakiness at times but when the sample is big enough the results converge to the probability rates..Deflect shouldnt be any different.

#4 RJEM

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 03:49

*Looks at log* So thats what you ve been up to! Good research :) All RNG's may show streakiness at times but when the sample is big enough the results converge to the probability rates..Deflect shouldnt be any different.


Yep - you can definitely see streakiness in my data, but it evens out over time. I believe avvakum produced a visual representation of the HCS RNG at one point, and it was beautifully streaky :)

Sorry about any gear damage Max!

#5 kingtyrin

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 03:50

SOME PEOPLE JUST GOT TOLD

Me for one :P

I want Screenies! (playing)

Now try with 165 or 170, I swear it activates more! :lol:
(not even kidding, I find I have much poorer luck with the supposed lower %, but that must just be me)

Next up, I'll be taking a look at whether FI 800 really is better than FI 1000 when scavenging. I just need to find some (lots of) gold before I start :)


This one I dont know, but I know he very first reborn leaf that was in the caves after they were introduced I received a total of 0 staffs with FI1k and 50fsp, then the remaining 150 fsp netted me 6 staffs with FI800. As for all the other drops, I didnt keep track.

#6 RJEM

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 03:52

SOME PEOPLE JUST GOT TOLD

Me for one :P

I want Screenies! (playing)

Now try with 165 or 170, I swear it activates more! :lol:
(not even kidding, I find I have much poorer luck with the supposed lower %, but that must just be me)

Next up, I'll be taking a look at whether FI 800 really is better than FI 1000 when scavenging. I just need to find some (lots of) gold before I start :)


This one I dont know, but I know he very first reborn leaf that was in the caves after they were introduced I received a total of 0 staffs with FI1k and 50fsp, then the remaining 150 fsp netted me 6 staffs with FI800. As for all the other drops, I didnt keep track.


I can send screenshots to anyone if needed - but it's a bit big to put on the forum straight up :)

As for the lower level/better luck, we'll see. Just need to find about a billion gold and a much, much bigger backpack. Tune in next time....

#7 kingtyrin

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 03:59

I can send screenshots to anyone if needed - but it's a bit big to put on the forum straight up :)

Was completely kidding, I dont mind admitting when Im wrong at all. Although if I wanted to be nitpicky I could claim 200 isnt a "VERY LARGE SAMPLE SIZE" like someone wanted, but chances are I would be proved further wrong :lol: .

TBH, its still hard to believe even if I saw the SS's ><

#8 fs_sonofsam

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 05:07

wow..too much mathematics fr me... (throws up and gets a beer to wash down the bile) :mrgreen:

#9 fs_theggold

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 05:08

Entertaining.

#10 fs_deadlystrk

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 10:22

so is it busted, confirmed or plausible? :)

#11 RJEM

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 10:49

so is it busted, confirmed or plausible? :)


The myth of a 50% activation rate for Deflect 175 has been BUSTED!

#12 fs_marinzeus

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 11:14

I reject your reality and substitute my own!
You need a lot more tests if you want to prove something...Still, there is something that is always there-RNG HAET!

#13 fs_cobra7781

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 11:30

have u ever thot of doing something constructive LOL

you must have been well bored that day RJ lol

#14 RJEM

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 11:33

You need a lot more tests if you want to prove something...


I thought I'd shown this to be false by using some real statistics rather than perception :roll:

#15 fs_kashen

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 13:20

Next up, I'll be taking a look at whether FI 800 really is better than FI 1000 when scavenging. I just need to find some (lots of) gold before I start :)


Are you saying that there are people stupid enough to think this is the case? Amazing.

#16 RJEM

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 13:43


Next up, I'll be taking a look at whether FI 800 really is better than FI 1000 when scavenging. I just need to find some (lots of) gold before I start :)


Are you saying that there are people stupid enough to think this is the case? Amazing.


Read the scavenging threads next time one of the comes out - tales of better results with FI 800 are pretty commonplace. I'd just like to demonstrate that in the long run it isn't true - or point out a problem to HCS if there was actually something behind it.

Putting it in the Deflect perspective - a 30 hit bounty *should* occur about once every 100 bounties you undertake, and yet when it happens people come out with all kinds of lines like 'that's impossible' and 'deflect must be over-activating'. Perception is a dangerous thing :)

On the plus side, getting 300 or so Goatman drops with each potion is going to sink a hell of a lot of gold, which is always good for the game :D

#17 fs_kashen

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 14:04

Read the scavenging threads next time one of the comes out - tales of better results with FI 800 are pretty commonplace. I'd just like to demonstrate that in the long run it isn't true - or point out a problem to HCS if there was actually something behind it.

Putting it in the Deflect perspective - a 30 hit bounty *should* occur about once every 100 bounties you undertake, and yet when it happens people come out with all kinds of lines like 'that's impossible' and 'deflect must be over-activating'. Perception is a dangerous thing :)

On the plus side, getting 300 or so Goatman drops with each potion is going to sink a hell of a lot of gold, which is always good for the game :D


Fair enough, but that's going to be approaching the billions if you want to get some sort of accuracy. Pretty expensive way to try to explain to morons that they are morons. :)

#18 RJEM

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 14:19


Read the scavenging threads next time one of the comes out - tales of better results with FI 800 are pretty commonplace. I'd just like to demonstrate that in the long run it isn't true - or point out a problem to HCS if there was actually something behind it.

Putting it in the Deflect perspective - a 30 hit bounty *should* occur about once every 100 bounties you undertake, and yet when it happens people come out with all kinds of lines like 'that's impossible' and 'deflect must be over-activating'. Perception is a dangerous thing :)

On the plus side, getting 300 or so Goatman drops with each potion is going to sink a hell of a lot of gold, which is always good for the game :D


Fair enough, but that's going to be approaching the billions if you want to get some sort of accuracy. Pretty expensive way to try to explain to morons that they are morons. :)


This is undoubtedly true. Maybe I'll need to ask the richest player to contribute :)

#19 Tegger

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 14:50


You need a lot more tests if you want to prove something...


I thought I'd shown this to be false by using some real statistics rather than perception :roll:


Real data, anyway. An attack population of 333 doesn't provide much in the way of statistics. :P

Although, I do agree with ya about deflect. If you DID run a lot more tests of this, I'd be willing to bet that the activation percentage would go up. to the range of 43.75%, like the skill description says it should; not "ZOMG, deflect is bugged" variety.

#20 fs_coyotik

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 14:56

great job there, RJEM!


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