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Fallen Sword Mythbusters: Part 3 - Duelist


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#1 RJEM

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Posted 30 January 2011 - 02:43

There were lots of requests after my last Mythbusters to investigate the Duelist Enhancement as there hadn't been much work on this before. I have decided to take up the challenge and have a go at checking this out. Please bear with me, as I've only accumulated about half of the data I really need for a firm conclusion.

How does the enhancement work?

There had been some speculation as to whether the enhancement was a) a fixed percentage and/or B) an 'always on' enhancement.

Even at this early stage I feel pretty confident about answering these two points. Duelist offers a fixed % increase in your attack and damage stats which is always in effect during PvP. I will outline my reasons for this below, but this diagram broadly shows the effect as it would be seen on the damage stat. N.B. Since multiplication is commutative you could apply the variance first, but it makes for a less simple diagram.

Posted Image

How effective is the enhancement?

So far I have only tested the effect of the enhancement on damage, so conclusions here are only *assumed* to hold true for attack as well. Many thanks to wingyann and MaximusGR for being my test dummies to this point.

I have so far tested out 5 different levels of Duelist and hope to include a further 5 more shortly. Doubling the number of data points for each level would also be nice - and I need player help to do that, so PM me in game if you're in my GvG range!

For each level I compared the damage delivered to a nearly naked opponent (~50 armour) over 20 combats and compared the Minimum, Mean and Maximum values to those expected without duelist. The results are listed below and shown in the following graph.

100% Duelist

Expected Mean: 5887
Expected Minimum: 5593
Expected Maximum: 6182

My observed results were:

Mean: 6424
Minimum: 6185
Maximum: 6759

That equates to a 9.1% damage increase (on average) over 20 combats.

80% Duelist

Expected Mean: 5160
Expected Minimum: 4902
Expected Maximum: 5418

My observed results were:

Mean: 5617
Minimum: 5310
Maximum: 5846

That equates to an 8.9% damage increase (on average) over 20 combats.

60% Duelist

Expected Mean: 4973
Expected Minimum: 4725
Expected Maximum: 5222

My observed results were:

Mean: 5289
Minimum: 5018
Maximum: 5530

That equates to an 6.3% damage increase (on average) over 20 combats.

50% Duelist

Expected Mean: 4809
Expected Minimum: 4569
Expected Maximum: 5049

My observed results were:

Mean: 5096
Minimum: 4831
Maximum: 5281

That equates to an 6.0% damage increase (on average) over 20 combats.

30% Duelist

Expected Mean: 4622
Expected Minimum: 4391
Expected Maximum: 4854

My observed results were:

Mean: 4741
Minimum: 4519
Maximum: 4988

That equates to an 2.6% damage increase (on average) over 20 combats.

In all cases it's evident that there was never a point where duelist 'failed to activate' (or at least I was extremely lucky when it did), and that there is still a typical +-5% distribution on the final damage values. This is what gives me confidence in the example diagram above.

Here is the graph showing the summarised results:

Posted Image

The error bars are calculated from the 5% variance in the damage after duelist is taken into account, based on the averaging over 20 combats. They currently work out as +-1% or so, which I'd love to reduce. I've constrained the best fit line to pass through the origin for obvious reasons (no duelist = no bonus :P)

You can see clearly from the graph that despite a bit of a spread in individual test samples the trend is towards the following HCS Style Buff Description:

Posted Image

Like I stated earlier, I've only tested damage values so far, so I'm only assuming that the same equation applies to attack as well. Based on previous HCS coding examples I would be surprised if it didn't, but I would like to test it out.

We can dig a little deeper into our results by checking them against the hypothesis presented in that tongue in cheek buff description.

How likely is it that we got the observed results if that hypothesis were true?

Well, so far we only have 5 data points (100, 80, 60, 50 and 30%).

Running a Pearson's Chi-Square test on just these data points gives a P-value of 0.97, meaning that for this hypothesis we have an excellent fit to the data!

Where do we go from here?

First of all I'd like to get at least another 20 combats for each Duelist value, and fill in the gaps at 10, 20, 40, 70 and 90%. That should nail down the damage boost and reduce the error on each sample by around 30%. I'd also like to test out a couple of different aspects of the attack/defence balance, as I've had some interesting PMs from some top players that I think are worth checking out.

As always, comments and criticism are welcome and I hope you enjoyed the third part of Mythbusters! I'll be making the data for all 3 of my enquiries available online shortly if anyone wants to have a look at the raw numbers.

Myth: Busted ;)

RJEM

EDIT: I have now tested this enhancement for attack as well. The boost is the same as for damage - a permanent 0.1% per 1% Duelist enhancement as far as I can tell.

HOWEVER, ATTACK DOES NOT INTERACT WITH DEFENCE IN THE SAME WAY DAMAGE INTERACTS WITH ARMOUR. PLEASE SEE MYTHBUSTERS PART 4 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

#2 fs_nthnclls

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Posted 30 January 2011 - 02:49

THANK YOU.

Now I'm interested: How will you test attack?

#3 RJEM

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Posted 30 January 2011 - 02:52

THANK YOU.

Now I'm interested: How will you test attack?


Good question. First I'm going to nail down 'PvE' attack as I've heard some interesting theories about just what the interaction there is. Then it shouldn't be difficult to come up with a matching 'PvP' test using that knowledge (a bit like I've done here, taking the PvE damage and checking it against what I observe in PvP). It will be a little more involved, but hopefully not too much!

#4 fs_nthnclls

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Posted 30 January 2011 - 03:00

THANK YOU.

Now I'm interested: How will you test attack?


Good question. First I'm going to nail down 'PvE' attack as I've heard some interesting theories about just what the interaction there is. Then it shouldn't be difficult to come up with a matching 'PvP' test using that knowledge (a bit like I've done here, taking the PvE damage and checking it against what I observe in PvP). It will be a little more involved, but hopefully not too much!


Good luck, it's probably the same percentage as the damage, but it can't hurt to make sure.

#5 Ptrgriffin

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Posted 30 January 2011 - 04:06

Rjem ur amazin :P

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#6 fs_coyotik

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Posted 30 January 2011 - 08:59

THANK YOU.

Now I'm interested: How will you test attack?


Good question. First I'm going to nail down 'PvE' attack as I've heard some interesting theories about just what the interaction there is. Then it shouldn't be difficult to come up with a matching 'PvP' test using that knowledge (a bit like I've done here, taking the PvE damage and checking it against what I observe in PvP). It will be a little more involved, but hopefully not too much!


I guess that first testing the attack (as we discussed ingame) - once you have that nailed down, it will be easy to come up with a test - determine minimum attack needed to hit more than the lucky 2%, decrease it by 9%, get duelist 100% (assumed 10%) and your hit ratio should change. Decrease your attack by 1% from the previous test and you should be back to 2% lucky hits.

#7 RJEM

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Posted 30 January 2011 - 12:41

THANK YOU.

Now I'm interested: How will you test attack?


Good question. First I'm going to nail down 'PvE' attack as I've heard some interesting theories about just what the interaction there is. Then it shouldn't be difficult to come up with a matching 'PvP' test using that knowledge (a bit like I've done here, taking the PvE damage and checking it against what I observe in PvP). It will be a little more involved, but hopefully not too much!


I guess that first testing the attack (as we discussed ingame) - once you have that nailed down, it will be easy to come up with a test - determine minimum attack needed to hit more than the lucky 2%, decrease it by 9%, get duelist 100% (assumed 10%) and your hit ratio should change. Decrease your attack by 1% from the previous test and you should be back to 2% lucky hits.


Yep, that's precisely what I have planned for either today or tomorrow!

#8 fs_tangtop

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Posted 30 January 2011 - 18:25

Wow RJEM ... you rock.

#9 fs_balmaina

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Posted 30 January 2011 - 18:43

WoW :shock:

#10 celendais

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Posted 31 January 2011 - 06:01

RJEM: professor emeritus in FallenSwordOLogy

5 dots sent for the science efforts

#11 RJEM

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Posted 31 January 2011 - 23:22

Quick bump to keep it in my memory!

#12 fs_scrogger

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Posted 31 January 2011 - 23:41

The work you do is great! I always look for the posts so I stay on top of the conversation! Great work.

#13 fs_deadlystrk

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Posted 01 February 2011 - 09:07

as always great work keep it up :)

#14 sweetlou

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Posted 01 February 2011 - 09:30

This isn't even finished and the presentation is wonderful!

I would have never thought that Duelist was added to my stats all the time. Just made that enhancement more valuable to me.

Now time to go practice it...

Nice job RJEM.

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#15 RJEM

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Posted 02 February 2011 - 00:16

This isn't even finished and the presentation is wonderful!

I would have never thought that Duelist was added to my stats all the time. Just made that enhancement more valuable to me.

Now time to go practice it...

Nice job RJEM.


Rest assured, now that I've hunted for the week I will be completing the attack analysis for both creatures and players in the next day or (at worst) two. I've also just had some excellent assistance from aa0007 in expanding dowuones dataset for FI which I will be raising again with the cows. I'll do a separate Mythbusters post for that at the same time as I complete this one because it needs debunking.

#16 RJEM

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Posted 03 February 2011 - 22:33

Original post edited to confirm that attack is also boosted by 10% :)

I've put a note in the first post about attack/defence interactions and it's very important people read up on this in full - so I've decided to do a separate thread on it. I was shocked when I ran the numbers.

#17 Ryebred

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Posted 26 August 2011 - 16:44

You are brilliant Rjem. I once submitted a ticket about this enchantment; the answer was vague, and inconclusive to say the least. That was an impressive breakdown. Cheers

#18 fs_musjacom

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Posted 18 September 2011 - 07:05

How about other enhancements? How does Master Thief work? I haven't seen it activated in over 500 x 10 stamina attacks (MT enhancement: 75%), but one guy hit me back with 100 stamina and Master Thief activated on the first try. Does it depend on stamina used in the attack?

#19 evilbry

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Posted 18 September 2011 - 07:12

How about other enhancements? How does Master Thief work? I haven't seen it activated in over 500 x 10 stamina attacks (MT enhancement: 75%), but one guy hit me back with 100 stamina and Master Thief activated on the first try. Does it depend on stamina used in the attack?

no it doesn't. it also works on 10 stam attacks.
It can activate when against an attacker as well.

#20 fs_musjacom

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Posted 18 September 2011 - 09:09

How about other enhancements? How does Master Thief work? I haven't seen it activated in over 500 x 10 stamina attacks (MT enhancement: 75%), but one guy hit me back with 100 stamina and Master Thief activated on the first try. Does it depend on stamina used in the attack?

no it doesn't. it also works on 10 stam attacks.
It can activate when against an attacker as well.


Thank you! After about 20 more tries it has finally activated! lol


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