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Arena might need some tending by HCS


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#41 fs_ragingwave

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Posted 12 September 2011 - 00:22

That's just about as near to 2% as it should get, yet it occurs in the first 4 hits. What does that tell you..?

#42 laptribe

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Posted 12 September 2011 - 01:06

i wonder if you would have still posted that..if the higher level had won... :wink:

#43 etrigan778

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Posted 12 September 2011 - 02:06

i wonder if you would have still posted that..if the higher level had won... :wink:


obviously not :roll: the higher level is supposed to win

#44 fs_ragingwave

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Posted 12 September 2011 - 02:08

:roll: It's like me soloing a Skull Carver... It shouldn't happen... Does that put it in plain enough terms?

#45 fs_johe71

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Posted 12 September 2011 - 05:55

That's just about as near to 2% as it should get, yet it occurs in the first 4 hits. What does that tell you..?


it tells me that the 2% is random ...

there is a 1 in 6 chance to roll a 6 on a die, still you can do it on the first roll.. what does that tell you....?

when we (I, earlier in this thread) checked a complete tournament, the 2% occured at 2.0% of the hits... the 2% is working as intended - posting a single battle where a 2% occured is not a proof of anything (you can roll 3 sixes in a row on a die... it doesn't proove that random is broken)

#46 fs_ragingwave

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Posted 12 September 2011 - 06:03

That's just about as near to 2% as it should get, yet it occurs in the first 4 hits. What does that tell you..?


it tells me that the 2% is random ...

there is a 1 in 6 chance to roll a 6 on a die, still you can do it on the first roll.. what does that tell you....?

when we (I, earlier in this thread) checked a complete tournament, the 2% occured at 2.0% of the hits... the 2% is working as intended - posting a single battle where a 2% occured is not a proof of anything (you can roll 3 sixes in a row on a die... it doesn't proove that random is broken)


Genetic drift. One tournament isn't enough context to base the test on. Try taking multiple tournaments, perhaps. Plus, the issue isn't simply that the 2% happens more than 2% of the time. Even if the mathematics are correct for the 2% (which I doubt, but believe what you like),
the issue is that the 2% even exists.
It's like rolling a die, when the dice roll was never required and never should have been rolled in the first place.

#47 Hoofmaster

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Posted 12 September 2011 - 19:17

Please continue discussion on the arena here:

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=104237

Cheers,
hoof


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