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Fragmenting and controlling markets.


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#1 Belaric

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 03:36

Did nobody point this out before we implemented it?

 

It seems HUGELY obvious to me now.

 

By allowing fragmenting we have allowed people to control markets for items.

 

If you had 75  (semi) worthless items before you can now fragment 74 and gain benefit, and have #75 hanging out there as FSP bait. (Maybe 76-85 if no-one else has them...) You will still benefit by using your 74 fragments to invent whatever the Cows decide can be made. Win/Win. Until then you can SQUEEZE the market and INFLATE prices. THIS is happening NOW!!

 

To the show me the evidence crowd I say this: Bite me.  I cannot prove this behaviour. But I ask you, my fellow players, to tell me I am wrong in key valuable item markets.

 

The proponents of this system repeatedly said it would require frequent legendary and spine events. The dissolution of items was started on its own. BEFORE replacement systems were in place. In a finite system profit would be easy to find. I would like to say I told you so............ but I did not see it happening so quickly. But it has. I argued that no benefit should be added to FF dissolution precisely to slow down this abuse.... but I did not see the full effect in advance.

 

HCS introduced fragmentation independently of the rest of their new system. Their choice. They wanted to show us players, as greedy and shortsighted, as venal and self defeating as we are.. that they are still thinking of us......

 

 

That was a HUGE mistake. It meant folk could buy then fragment many items cheaply, and then control a suddenly inflated market.

 

 

 

Did anyone see this coming? If so (other than the clever boys and girls who knew this would make them FSP, and to whom I can only bow sardonically to and hope they will give me a glass of wine) : I wish I had heard you. I did not see enough on the forum clearly enough to make me shout out against this idea.

 

Should we have seen this coming?

 

Yes. Maybe.

 

Should the game designers have seen this form of opportunism arising? Yes. It is your JOB!

 

 

 

Is my analysis wrong? (maybe)

 

 

 

Is everything fine? (maybe)

 

 

Talk back and discuss. Please.


Good-bye and hello, as always.


#2 Belaric

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 04:12

Let us imagine a future event in which limited numbers of high level players have access to a new legendary. This has happened in the past.

 

It was always a monopoly.

 

Now it is squared.

 

In addition to getting the rare items/ingredients to make the newest sexiest items those who get there first can destroy their extras to increase profit on the items they wish to sell. At the upper tier they will get many fragments for each high level LE they destroy. Currently we think fragments will go to making potions that are guild bound. In the future, after may arguments with HCS, who knows what will be made. There is no disincentive to pushing up prices now, no matter what the fragment rewards are. Guild bound potions means no profit - screw that. There will be a cost benefit accounting, and exclusivity has led to prices of 1000's of FSP in the past.

 

If fragmenting can increase exclusivity it will be used. Items that in the past may have been sold, will be broken down to keep the price high.

 

 

If no-one can pay.... a miscalculation, but those with huge BP and FSP banks can wait. And they will. They have already.

 

 

The argument will be made against this that new items are SO valuable that nobody would break them to make more profit. Look at the names who try that argument.


Good-bye and hello, as always.


#3 watagashi

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 05:08

actually I did mention that,,got shouted down by the player who put those broken parts that benefited them into a great idea.

 

you forgot this part tho,,,"If you had 75  (semi) worthless items before you can now fragment 74 and gain benefit, and have #75 hanging out there as FSP bait  " "You will still benefit by using your 74 fragments to invent whatever the Cows decide can be made."

 

(Thats only if you are a lvl 100 or lower, otherwise you also get a great bonus to your fragments because,,,well I said that made no sense when there was time to fix that too.) 



#4 Pardoux

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 06:25

I have to say, I dont fully get your point Belaric ?

 

A level 1610 Rare item will extract into 5 Rare fragments - and therefore, as far as fragmenting is concerned, will never sell for more than 5x any Level 10 Rare item.

 

A level 1625 Unique item will extract into 5 Unique fragments - same thing - as far as fragmenting is concerned, it wont sell for anything more than 5x any Level1-100 Unique item.

 

So, on a PURELY FRAGMENTING BASIS, how can there be any price gauging ?

 

Where it gets a little messier, admittedly, is in the crystalline and LE stuff - stuff that has a limited supply. BUT - and here's the big but - no-one is forcing anyone to buy any of those items. Some folk wanna rack up massive fragment counts in advance, fine, let 'em. Me, I've got plenty of common, rare, uniques, some SE's and next to zero Crystalline and LE's, because I'm waiting for an event to stock up on them. I'm actually quite surprised that there wasn't one last weekend tbh.

 

That new Level 1725 set will be back in the caves in pretty short order, I suspect, given the short recycle time of GILDED, ZARAGOTH and POUNAMU. They were put back in the caves for the 2x xp event (and, as a gold sink, they were the best critters the cows could have put in there) but the prices of said items fell by 75% per item in the case of Pounamu - and quite a lot more than that in the case of the Zaragoth boots. 

 

The problem is tho, crystalline and LE gear have more important uses than simply being shattered for fragments - so the cows have to make sure that the events are run frequently ...


Homer : Marge, don't discourage the boy. Weaseling out of things is important to learn. It's what separates us from the animals .. except the weasel.

 

Eddie Izzard : The National Rifle Association say that guns don't kill people, people do. But I think the gun helps, you know ? I think it helps. I think just standing there going "BANG" - that's not going to kill too many people, is it ?

 

I don't mean to sound pessimistic, but it seems that everything I eat lately turns to poo ...


#5 Belaric

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 10:08

So you miss my point that in the case of high value items there may be an incentive now to destroy (fragment) some of those items, and thereby increase the value of those items remaining?

 

The fragmenting value is of no relevance here. It is indeed a sideshow in need of a bob.

 

Once an LE event would produce Z number of items. X would be sold or used. Y would be hoarded for random future use.

 

After a while the availability of Y becomes the basis, de facto, for market prices.

 

I am saying that right now Y has been destroyed utterly to force up market prices, as the cows are  not going to universally release legendary Y. Indeed they may leave Y off the rotation list accidentally or on purpose to make Y more marketable.

 

Y becomes way more expensive.

 

Those who held Y from way back when Y was easy make profit, per the old paradigm.

 

Those who had a bunch of Y that no-one would buy six months ago at C prices find that it is worthwhile to destroy their stock. The UFSG tells everyone how many items are left in the game. By destroying (i"m sorry - fragmenting) items they create a floor in availability and increase the value of that left behind. In keeping fragments, those some time sellers still realise value.

 

So a crappy Y item suddenly gains value. B prices kick in. Yay B prices, which are way above nothing.

 

B prices are in no way accidental. They are the result of a forced economy. We are living through that right now.

 

Don't make me bring out the gimp that is A.

 

 

 

I am listening to this and realising how little this conversation matters. Do what you want.


Good-bye and hello, as always.


#6 koenvdv

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 11:14

One has to do a big gamble by buying out all items from players keeping it for sales. Destroying items to increase price is a expensive risk and if you want to try that then it is all your risk. But the chance exists that due to the low number of items avaible the cows will release the creatures and making your items back to low price.

 

I normaly hunt my own gear when the creatures are in the realm. But because of people holding big piles of items at the moment there is no need to release the creatures again. The piles of the smaler players selling gets sold out and the few big piles are left with mostly all remaining for sale and they can drive prices up.

 

And recently LE have been released in scavenging caves a lot ... I do not have the space to store all other loot to get the items for a decent price. And I do not understand why creatures ever were released in both realms and caves it only makes people mad.



#7 BigGrim

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 11:23

I am saying that right now Y has been destroyed utterly to force up market prices, as the cows are  not going to universally release legendary Y. Indeed they may leave Y off the rotation list accidentally or on purpose to make Y more marketable.


This is something we are aware of and intend to deal with as best we can. What you have to remember is that no matter what we do, SOMEONE will use it to turn a profit. This is not necessarily a bad thing.

As stated previously, this allows us to have more frequent Legendary Events.

If you feel something in particular could do with a shot in the Realms, tell us. I do listen to the LE requests in the caves. The Realms will be no different.

#8 Belaric

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 11:37

Thanks BG. I am still dubious.

 

Thank you for getting my fear. You rock. But not as much as this:

 

 

This is awesome. I wait for you to prove my misgivings wrong.  Until then.... the greatest rock song ever.

 

Someone will turn profit. True. Just don't help them.


Good-bye and hello, as always.


#9 Pardoux

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 12:08

So you miss my point that in the case of high value items there may be an incentive now to destroy (fragment) some of those items, and thereby increase the value of those items remaining?

 

I didn't miss the point, I just don't see it. Why destroy it ? - just hold the item in your pack and put 1 or 2 items up in the AH - that's no different to how traders have worked their wares since the game began. Corner a market, control it and control the prices. Composing / Fragmenting, IMO, changes nothing here.

 

Doesn't matter if there's 1000 items or 10 items - if there's only 1 of those in the AH, and it's desirable, the vendor controls the price .. up to a point. After all, NO gear is ESSENTIAL.


Homer : Marge, don't discourage the boy. Weaseling out of things is important to learn. It's what separates us from the animals .. except the weasel.

 

Eddie Izzard : The National Rifle Association say that guns don't kill people, people do. But I think the gun helps, you know ? I think it helps. I think just standing there going "BANG" - that's not going to kill too many people, is it ?

 

I don't mean to sound pessimistic, but it seems that everything I eat lately turns to poo ...


#10 Belaric

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 12:50

I didn't miss the point, I just don't see it. Why destroy it ? - just hold the item in your pack and put 1 or 2 items up in the AH - that's no different to how traders have worked their wares since the game began. Corner a market, control it and control the prices. Composing / Fragmenting, IMO, changes nothing here.

 

Doesn't matter if there's 1000 items or 10 items - if there's only 1 of those in the AH, and it's desirable, the vendor controls the price .. up to a point. After all, NO gear is ESSENTIAL.

We must disagree here.

 

I see market abuse: you see markets working.

 

One last attempt. Say I harvest 1000 items. I can maybe sell them for 5 FSP a piece, over years.

 

I get the chance to destroy 500 of those items. And double the price of those I keep. I lose nothing... BUT the destruction may also profit me!

 

Why would I not destroy what I have and make others pay more?

 

Your argument boils down to.... but more will become available!

 

My argument is... we are being screwed now.

 

BG. Make more available and ruin my argument.


Good-bye and hello, as always.


#11 raist007

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 12:51

If I recall correctly, there has always been market control by those with huge backpacks and loads of fsp.  They stock up duing an LE/Crystalline event, then hoard them for selling at a later time for profit.  So.....what is the problem?   If people are ridiculous enough to spend oodles of fsp for fragmenting crystalline/LE gear (which imho is insane until another event is released), then by all means, let them.  But hey, no different than any market, if demand goes up enough, then the seller can ask for more.  I still don't see the problem here since people are buying these items for a completely optional aspect of the game.  I think one thing that is being overlooked is that when it comes to fragmenting, ALL legendary and/or crystalline gear is of an equal value (for its level), regardless of practicality of being equipped for hunting, pvp, titan hunting, etc.  You are getting worried about 1 or 2 LE/crystalline items getting way overinflated in marketplace, when there are going to be several other LE/Crystalline creatures released to help keep a steady stream of items being introduced to the marketplace.  Depending on how long the cows wait between events will determine whether those with larger backpacks can hoard enough of the gear to begin driving prices up.  The profit margin, although existent, will narrow SIGNIFICANTLY as time goes on.  I think people are just getting giddy buying things up in anticipation for composing to begin OR because they want those new shiny medals.  :)



#12 Belaric

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 13:10

I respectfully disagree with your wall of text.

 

Yes folks with Huge BP have always had the ability to run markets.

 

The idea of this new system is to create new from old.

 

The basis of this idea as proposed by its most ardent afficionados was that more events would happen.

 

It is just a couple of clicks.

 

I call absolute BS on that. Where are these events? A couple of clicks away.

 

And part 1 was introduced BEFORE any replacement happened - which means markets for new players are wildly distorted.

 

Apparently I am the only one who sees this as a problem. There is no market distortion happening now. We are all happy. I like soylent green.


Good-bye and hello, as always.


#13 watagashi

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 20:11

This is something we are aware of and intend to deal with as best we can. What you have to remember is that no matter what we do, SOMEONE will use it to turn a profit. This is not necessarily a bad thing.

As stated previously, this allows us to have more frequent Legendary Events.

If you feel something in particular could do with a shot in the Realms, tell us. I do listen to the LE requests in the caves. The Realms will be no different.

Sweet!!!

#1 All the stuff used up with pvp tokens,,, the other half of the sets im pretty sure got broke last week

 

#2 stuff that had a use before fragmenting but has gotten pretty scarce such as reborn dragon or other sets that at least one piece was used for inventing

 

#3 everything else,, the "everyone" event was the last LE in realms I can recall. EDIT there was a spine one too sorry

 

Oh yea and remove the extra fragments,,it was a bad idea in the first place and totally contributing to this subjects woes,, look at all the expensive 1500 items in AH if you dont believe me.



#14 Pardoux

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 21:51

The basis of this idea as proposed by its most ardent afficionados was that more events would happen.

 

It is just a couple of clicks.

 

I call absolute BS on that. Where are these events? A couple of clicks away.

 

Jeez, give the cows a break - fragmenting has been out for a whole WEEK ... it's not as if we've gone months with no LE / Crystalline to break down.

 

And, as has been said before, where is the urgency ?, the necessity to break down existing crystalline / LE items ? - I don't see ANY urgency for it on 2 counts.

 

1. Stage 2 of composing isn't even live yet - so no-one can make any potions yet - so why the stampede to fragment scarce stuff. I don't even know WHEN stage 2 will go live ...

 

2. I'll wait until there is a Crystalline Event and/or a Legendary Event to gather my pieces and not buy from the AH

 

I hope there is 1 or both of those events this weekend - just to allay your fears, if for no other reason.


Homer : Marge, don't discourage the boy. Weaseling out of things is important to learn. It's what separates us from the animals .. except the weasel.

 

Eddie Izzard : The National Rifle Association say that guns don't kill people, people do. But I think the gun helps, you know ? I think it helps. I think just standing there going "BANG" - that's not going to kill too many people, is it ?

 

I don't mean to sound pessimistic, but it seems that everything I eat lately turns to poo ...


#15 Pardoux

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 22:07

Oh yea and remove the extra fragments,,it was a bad idea in the first place and totally contributing to this subjects woes,, look at all the expensive 1500 items in AH if you dont believe me.

 

I see you trotting out that old chestnut again ... 

 

I've just looked in the AH for these expensive L1500 items you're mentioning ? - some of them are, yes - but they were those kind of prices BEFORE fragmenting was introduced too. Tentacle Chomper ? - hunting gear. The "rare" drops are from Champions and can be utilised in various setups.

 

And, the point you ALWAYS seem to miss / ignore / skip over is the fact that NO 5 fragment high level item, of any rarity type will sell (for fragmenting purposes) for more than 5x a 1 fragment low level item of comparible rarity type.

 

If it does, it has alternative uses.

 

Therefore, it's NOT fragmenting that is "inflating" (as you say) or "maintaining" (as I say) the price.


Homer : Marge, don't discourage the boy. Weaseling out of things is important to learn. It's what separates us from the animals .. except the weasel.

 

Eddie Izzard : The National Rifle Association say that guns don't kill people, people do. But I think the gun helps, you know ? I think it helps. I think just standing there going "BANG" - that's not going to kill too many people, is it ?

 

I don't mean to sound pessimistic, but it seems that everything I eat lately turns to poo ...


#16 watagashi

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 22:26

Did nobody point this out before we implemented it?

^ replyed to that 

 

 

 

OHHH yea one last one for Grim,, another everything event!!! Thats the perfect thing right now for this ALL legendary and spine released for a weekend in all their realms!!!!

It sure would encourage us all to hunt them up then break it. 



#17 BigGrim

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Posted 27 June 2013 - 08:45

I'd rather not do another everything event again if at all possible. Having the Legendaries actually worth being in the Realms is something I've wanted to see for ages. An everything event would simply wipe that out again.

#18 tharzill

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Posted 27 June 2013 - 09:21

If LE events become more frequent, I see no need of an "everything" event.  Having a few out here and there would keep more interest in the events. My two cents. 



#19 gomezkilla

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Posted 27 June 2013 - 11:59

I see market abuse: you see markets working.

Abuse: To use wrongly or improperly; misuse: abuse alcohol; abuse a privilege.

I don't see how your argument is the market being abused. People can do what they want with the items they have in the market, doesn't mean they are abusing it.

#20 Belaric

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Posted 27 June 2013 - 15:03

Abuse: To use wrongly or improperly; misuse: abuse alcohol; abuse a privilege.

I don't see how your argument is the market being abused. People can do what they want with the items they have in the market, doesn't mean they are abusing it.

Ok, I'll concede that. Potential for abuse is there, perhaps that could be agreed upon. And if not... okay - opinions expressed  and accepted as such.

 

In any event I am accepting of the status quo (cue you tube link!! Mystery song is my favourite of theirs i think!).

 

It is what it is - the game continues, the markets are still there, players still play and enjoy the game. That is the important thing. BG is on the case, and for that I am grateful.

 

Thank you everyone for contributing to this chat, and for helping me understand the issues a little better. 


Good-bye and hello, as always.



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